LATIN AME奥迪Q7ICA STRATEGY
Yesterday, we published a note shedding light on the unsustainable level of the stock of Lebacsand how the ratio to international reserves has been a compelling leading indicator of thedynamics of USDARS (Argentinean peso: we have a problem with the Lebacs).
The stocks of Lebacs is a direct consequence of the uneven mix of very loose fiscal and tightmonetary policies, exacerbated by the fact that the fiscal deficit is being financed mostly by hardcurrency debt. The sterilization process seemed to have reached a limit.
We added two additional charts to relate the ratio between the expanded monetary base (in USdollar terms) to the stock of Lebacs (in US dollar terms as well) and the USDARS. Chart 2 showsthe resilience of the ARS in the Q1 2017 and the sudden depreciation over the last weeks: theexplosive increase of the stock of Lebacs (measured against the expanded monetary base) sinceApril 2017 reinforces the conclusion of yesterday’s analysis: the sterilization process is notlimitless. Monetary aggregates and the sterilization stance from BCRA are key elements to finetuneany strategy on ARS.